The Ottumwa Courier

AP National

June 18, 2014

Investors to seek clues from Fed on rate increase

WASHINGTON (AP) — A stay-the-course message is expected from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday after it ends a two-day policy meeting.

The Fed will likely approve a fifth cut in its monthly bond purchases because the job market has steadily strengthened. But no clear signal is expected on when the Fed will start raising short-term interest rates from record lows.

The meeting will end with a statement outlining the Fed's plans. The central bank will also update its economic forecasts, and Janet Yellen will hold her second news conference since becoming Fed chair in February.

The Fed got some further cause for discussion just before it started this week's meeting with a report Tuesday of a surprising jump in consumer inflation.

Yet most economists aren't altering their view that the Fed's first rate increase is at least a year away. Analysts cautioned that that time frame could change if inflation were to accelerate. The consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in May, the government said, and has risen 2.1 percent over the past 12 months — roughly at the level of the Fed's target rate for inflation.

It's why the Fed might actually welcome the news of slightly higher inflation. It will help ease long-standing concerns that inflation might be too low. For the past two years, inflation by one key measure has remained under the Fed's 2 percent target.

Investors will be seeking any new clues the central bank might send about when it will finally raise its benchmark short-term rate. That rate has been at a record low near zero since 2008. They will also be looking for hints about how and when the Fed will start unloading its vast investment holdings.

The answers will affect loan rates for individuals and businesses — and perhaps the direction of the economy. Yet few expect to hear anything definitive. The Fed remains in a tentative wait-and-see stance.

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