OTTUMWA — If absentee ballots predict turnout, today could be a very busy day at polling locations around Ottumwa.

The Wapello County Auditor’s Office said Monday that the returns for absentee ballots were far ahead of those in the last city election. Auditor Kelly Spurgeon said 745 ballots were returned to her office so far.

Here’s the catch: Those numbers were as of the close of business Friday. They hadn’t received any that might arrive with Monday’s mail. And there were still 275 ballots that people requested and could return.

Just how unusual is this for a city election? In 2007 there were only 246 absentee ballots. The number this time could easily be more than four times the total from two years ago by the time the polls close at 8 p.m.

Spurgeon attributed the increase to backers of the candidates who are being called the “firefighters’ slate.”

“I think we have a group of people who are out getting requests, like the firefighters,” she said. “I know they’ve been bringing up requests.”

The use of absentee ballots as a means of generating votes is not new and is playing an increasing role in Iowa politics. Absentee ballots hold several advantages for campaigns. Once they are submitted the campaigns need not worry about voters actually getting to the polls on Election Day. In essence, the ballots are votes already secured.

If the percentages from this year’s primary vote mirror those in the general election, four candidates will be the major beneficiaries of the increased absentee total. Frank Flanders brought in 61 percent of the absentee votes for mayor, a total that dwarfed the other three candidates.

On the council side, Rick McClure, Brian Morgan and Jeremy Weller each topped 20 percent of the absentee ballots. They were the only candidates to even come close to those figures. None of the others even made it into double digits.

There are a couple of major differences that could impact the final numbers. The Oct. 6 vote was a primary that cut more than half the candidates from today’s council ballot and pared two from the mayoral ballot. It is difficult to project how supporters of candidates who failed to make the cut will break.

There is also reason to think the high absentee figures may presage busy polls. Spurgeon suspects there is high interest in this election and that typically links to stronger turnout.

“We had a little bit better turnout in the primary than we did last time,” she said.

Polls close at 8 p.m. tonight. That’s when Spurgeon’s office can start counting the hundreds of votes it already has in hand.

Matt Milner can be reached at (641) 683-5359 or via e-mail at mwmilner@mchsi.com