OTTUMWA — Iowa has not had a great deal of severe weather this year. It’s not particularly likely Saturday, either, but it is possible.
Most of the state is at a slight risk of severe storms, according to the Storm Prediction Center. All but the northeastern corner of the state is included in the risk area. The designation is part of a much larger area of concern that also includes portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Illinois.
Storms are expected to initially form west of Iowa. Forecasters said a mesoscale convective system (MCS) “is likely to evolve … by evening as it continues east” toward Illinois. An MCS is an organized complex of storms that organize and persist for several hours. Those organized groupings of storms can maintain their force better than individual cells.
Wind and hail are the main concerns with Saturday’s weather. The daytime hours should be comparatively calm, with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Saturday night has a higher probability of storms, mostly before 1 a.m.
Hot weather will move in behind the storms, with highs in the low 90s Monday and Tuesday. The heat is not expected to last long, though, with daytime temperatures falling back into the low 80s by midweek.